If the effect of spring vaccination is not what we expect, then after the large budget deficit and planning for further asset purchases by the NBP, it can be seen that the Polish economy will remain on doping in 2021, prof. Jacek Tomkiewicz from Kuzminsky University.
PAP: Are we able to predict which industries will improve next year?
Jacek Tomkiewicz: We have to start with the fact that this year is very weak in terms of results. So each industry has weakened this year, from this point of view, it will do much better in 2021, and the annual growth will be very large, for example in the hotel or tourism industry.
However, there will also be industries that have also suffered significant declines this year, such as the domestic gigs or the office industry along with the entire service environment, such as catering or cleaning services, but I wouldn’t expect a major rebound next year. It seems that in these areas, epidemic habits will arise: employers will be more brave to use telework, even after the epidemic is over, and the transportation sector will be permanently lost if residents discover that you can do a lot at home and not need as much driving as it was before the epidemic. .
PAP: To what extent should we base our expectations for the coming year on what we know about the behavior of entities in the markets, and to what extent will we depend on management decisions?
JT: There is a possible scenario that despite today’s optimism, it may turn out that the grafting process in the spring will not go as we think. Then, instead of succeeding, we will have a third wave of the coronavirus epidemic and we can expect more restrictions and restrictions.
When it comes to state aid, the draft budget for next year shows continued macroeconomic stimulus, which can be seen through the massive budget deficit planned for next year, assuming 2021 will be the year of economic growth. The asset purchases in the NBP will continue, with interest rates as low as today, so everything indicates that the Polish economy will still be held by the government on doping next year.
PAP: The banking sector threatens to deteriorate in the financial sector, the profitability of banks is declining, and that the Monetary Policy Committee will not be able to rely on a change in interest rates. Is this something that could threaten our economy?
JT: With interest rates as low as they are today, it is clear that the profitability of the banks is declining and the margins in the core area of activity, i.e. credit, are much lower than they were a year ago. However, this is not a problem for the economy, as the financial sector is over-liquid and there is a lot of money in the entire industry. If we add to that the money from the shields that landed on corporate accounts, liquidity is improved during the pandemic, rather than reduced.
However, the low profitability of banks from lending activities will not translate into problems in financing institutions, because there is a lot of liquidity in financial institutions, and the institutions do not appear to suffer from a lack of liquidity.
PAP: What will our foreign trade be like? Should we fight for new markets for Polish exports, but can we count on our exports within the European Union to recover?
JT: First of all, we have to point out that in 2020 exports have been declining, but imports have decreased further, so our trade balance has improved nonetheless. The main recipient of our products was and still is Germany, which is highly industrialized economy, not service oriented, so we have not permanently lost buyers of our products.
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