Nearly a third of hospital funds in England have passed the peak of the first wave of Covid patients undergoing treatment, with scientists warning that relaxing or abolishing the three-layer system too quickly could hinder even more. NHS.
Guardian analyzes showed that hospitals in South Somerset and Devon last week treated more than double the number of Covid patients in at least one day last week as they did at the height of the first wave in the spring. But, reflecting the fact that level decisions are based on a set of data, both areas will Go to level 2 From Thursday.
Conversely, the Manchester University Hospital Trust last week treated 31% fewer Covid patients than it did in the busiest week of the first wave (295 compared to 428). The whole of Greater Manchester will enter the tougher Tier 3 this week.
Although much of the southwest England Avoid Level 3, as more than half of the acute NHS funds in the region treated more Covid patients in at least one day last week compared to the peak of the first wave. The same is true for half of the trust funds in the Northwest and Northeast, and a third of those in the Midlands – almost all of them are at Level 3.
The data comes in the middle of a file Disagreement over Michael Gove’s warning Health services, including the Nightingale Hospitals emergency, may become “physically stressful”.
Cabinet Office Minister intervened before that The Commons vote On the new three-tier system that has sparked a backlash from Conservative MPs, with many claiming that their constituencies will be subject to very strict measures despite low, stable or declining infection rates.
In an effort to quell the rebellion, Boris Johnson indicated that some areas could be moved to lower levels after reviewing On December 16th, if there is “strong evidence” that the coronavirus is in constant decline, with the tiers system likely to be suspended in nine weeks unless MPs vote to keep it.
But his confidence in reducing infection numbers within weeks has been called into question by top scientists and health leaders, while the Guardian’s hospital data analysis indicates the risks to the NHS in specific regions.
In East Riding of Yorkshire, for example, some residents were outraged to find themselves at level 3 despite the lower infection rate (287 per 100,000) in the week through November 21 compared to many London neighborhoods, which would be level 2 (Havering, for example). For example, it was 338 per 100,000 in the same period.)
However, district hospitals are now treating far more Covid patients than they did in the spring. The North Lincolnshire Foundation and the NHS had 185 patients from Covid in the week ending November 24, compared to 75 in the busiest week of the first wave.
Dr Laila Mackay, Director of the NHS Consortium, warned: “The national lockdown may end but NHS leaders are telling us they are still facing the triple whammy of treating Covid patients, providing broader care services and preparing for the winter season.
“While hospitalization due to the virus continues to present tremendous challenges, this terrible disease is also stressing other parts of the NHS, including primary and mental health care and community care, very weakly.”
Dr Chand Nagpole, president of the British Medical Association, said it would be a mistake to loosen restrictions too soon. “If we want to prevent the NHS from getting overwhelmed this winter and leaving it unable to provide both critical and wider care to everyone who needs it, we must do everything we can to control the spread of the virus,” he said.
“We don’t know where we will be in two weeks, let alone nine weeks, but whatever decisions are made at that time must be based on the latest data on infection levels and stress on the NHS.”
Nagebol described the previous levels system, introduced in October, as insufficient and ineffective in stemming the rise in infections and warned that without tougher measures this time, another national lockdown would follow.
Scientists echoed the warning. Dr Simon Clark, associate professor of cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, and Peter Openshaw, professor of experimental medicine at Imperial College London, said they did not expect enough data to emerge by December 16 to ease restrictions.
Clark said easing the levels restrictions would be more of a political decision than a science-based one. This inevitably leads to an increase in the number of new infections. January and February are the worst months of respiratory infections anyway, regardless of the current epidemic. These factors combined will inevitably translate into more hospitalizations and deaths. “
“We scientists are really very concerned about loosening precautions at this point,” Openshaw said. “The rates are still very high, and there are a lot of cases coming into hospitals, and a lot of people dying.” He told the BBC: “If we remove the brakes at this point, Only when the end is in sight do I think we’ll make a huge mistake. “
An NHS spokeswoman said: “The number of hospital admissions for Covid-19 varies widely across the country, and although the national volume of patients in the second wave did not exceed the first level, some hospitals in certain areas of the country are already treating more Covid. Sick of what they did in the spring. “