Polexit is an increasingly discussed scenario with dire consequences. Experts warn: Poland’s exit from the European Union will destroy its economy and lead to a national uprising,” Matthias Brugmann wrote in the weekend edition of the largest daily in economic circles – Handelsblatt.
The author states that the term “polnische Wirtschaft” (Polish economy), which used to be an insult, is now synonymous with extraordinary economic success. As he asserts, Poland’s GDP has more than doubled since it joined the European Union in 2004, and the growth rate in Poland is higher than in Germany. Brugman adds that Poland has the lowest unemployment rate in the European Union, and in terms of foreign investment it ranks third in Europe.
Dark clouds over Poland
“However, nowadays dark clouds are gathering on the Vistula and Oder: more and more people are talking about politics – Poland’s withdrawal from the European Union. There are two main reasons: the frustration of the largest economy in Eastern Europe from Brussels and the dissatisfaction of the Western European countries with anti-democratic politics The growing authorities in Warsaw, as noted by the journalist in “Handelsblatt”.
Soon, a decisive duel between Poland and Brussels could take place, Brugman wrote, explaining that the Polish Constitutional Court may issue a ruling on Polish law on EU law next Thursday.
Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and his “nationalist, populist Law and Justice” party want an independent decision on issues related to the administration of justice. PiS accuses the EU of “colonialism” and describes its actions as “the struggle for Poland’s freedom and sovereignty”.
In this context, Brugman cites the statement of MP Marek Suski, a member of the PiS, who compared the current conflict with Brussels to the fight against German and Soviet occupation, and the deliberations of fellow club Janusz Kowalski, who implored him to consider whether the British track would do so. Be the best for Poland. The author draws attention to the statements of Minister of Justice Zbigniew Ziobro, who sees him “repeating against the European Union almost every day.”
Constitutional amendment is a test
As Handelsblatt wrote, the opposition decided to put the PiS to the test. The lower house is due to deal with the amendment of the constitution, thanks to which Brexit will be possible only if such a proposal is supported by a two-thirds majority in Parliament, rather than a simple majority as it is now.
Brugman explains that “the opposition forces the Law and Justice Party to take a clear position against politics, and therefore against the partner of the National Alliance, through a parliamentary decision rather than a (party) decision.”
Handelsblatt asserts that Poland, with a population of 38 million, will receive up to €75 billion from the European Cohesion Fund in 2021-2027, while Italy, with a population of more than 60 million, can count on €42.1 billion.
According to the German newspaper, 58 billion euros have been allocated from the European Reconstruction Fund for Poland. However, these measures are not yet mobilized, which “exacerbates frustration” and “fuels political debate”. “If this situation continues for two or three years, the positive feelings towards Europe will be reversed,” warns the representative of the Warsaw business circles, who wants to keep his identity confidential.
The electrifying effects of Polexit
The effects of Poland’s withdrawal from the European Union could be electrifying – assesses Handelsblatt. The editors cite Polish economist Roch Donin-Wysowicz of the London School of Economics that political policy would be “more disastrous than Brexit.” Unlike Great Britain, leaving the European Union would not only lead to an “economic and financial crisis” for Poland, but also to a civilized collapse.
Irenus Bell of Amicus Europae believes that political politics will lead to a national uprising. Leaving the EU would be a “budget earthquake” and a shift toward “right-wing authoritarianism”, and it could discourage foreign businessmen from investing in Poland.
For many investors, Poland’s membership in the European Union is one of the most important criteria that determine Poland’s attractiveness as a suitable place for investment – “Handelsblatt” emphasizes.
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