In the first half of the year, the UK economy could contract by at least 10%.
In the first half of 2020, the UK economy will score at least 10%. The GDP fell due to lower production due to the Coronavirus epidemic.
According to a Bloomberg Economics report submitted on Monday, the support provided to the economy by the Bank of England (BOE) and the Treasury should accelerate the change in the situation in the second half of the year, assuming, however, that the epidemic will stop by summer. Projections assume that a four-week government blockade will be imposed in April to contain the spread of the Coronavirus epidemic.
Dan Hanson, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, said the duration of containment measures is the biggest uncertainty in the forecast. “In a more dangerous scenario, including a six-week blockade, the economy could contract by up to 14 percent,” he added.
Of course, if safeguards extend into the second half of the year, the costs will be enormous, Hansen said.
The economist believes that the gross domestic product will contract by approximately 9%. In the second quarter itself. According to Bank of England data, April to June is possibly the worst quarterly result since 1921.
In Bloomberg Economics’ baseline scenario, the economy will contract by 2.7% throughout 2020. Meanwhile, pre-crisis forecasts assumed a 1% decline.