According to ESPON and the European Commission report, in less than three decades, people over the age of 65 will make up a quarter of Europe’s population, meaning an increase of over 40%. Compared to 2020. According to experts, the dynamics of the aging process in Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary will surpass the European average.
According to the European Commission, Poland will also be affected by profound demographic changes.
On behalf of ESPON Experts – However, Europe has been aging for a long time This process will only intensify rapidly in the coming years. The elderly population (65 years of age or older) will increase from 90.5 million in 2019 to 129.8 million in 2050.
ESPON is a research program that covers all member states of the European Union as well as Great Britain, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. In cooperation with various academic centers and research institutes, ESPON experts monitor, among other things, the demographic processes occurring in Europe.
And this, according to the latest report, “The Aging Revolution: Toward a European Silver Deal?” , Will pose a huge challenge to governments and societies across the continent in the coming decades.
Europe has been aging for a long time, and according to ESPON experts, this process will only rapidly increase in the coming years. The elderly population (65 years of age or older) will increase from 90.5 million in 2019 to 129.8 million in 2050.
During this period, the number of people aged 75-84 is expected to increase by 56.1%, and those aged 65-74 years – by 16.6%. According to analysts, in 2019-2050, the proportion of elderly people (over 85 years old) will double – from 12.5 million in 2019 to 26.8 million in 2050, while the number of centenarians is expected to increase from 96,600 in this period. In 2019 to nearly half a million.
“The change in the age structure is the result of both a lower birth rate, which has been maintained for many years, and an increase in life expectancy, in relation to, among other things, advances in medicine” – the authors of the report argue.
The severity of population aging varies significantly from country to country. According to Eurostat data, in 2019 people over the age of 65 accounted for 20 percent. Population of Europe – This proportion was highest in Italy (23%) and lowest in Ireland (only 14%).
Similar differences can also be observed across regions within one country – in the UK the percentage of older people in 2019 ranged from around 12%. In London it is over 23 percent. In some provinces. In contrast, a greater proportion of the elderly in Germany live in the eastern federal states of the former GDR.
In all regions of the continent, population aging mainly affects less densely populated, peripheral and often economically backward areas. As the report’s authors argue, it is a result of the exodus of young people leaving in search of work and a better quality of life.
In this context, what are the demographic prospects for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, including Poland? The ESPON report is not optimistic.
It is true that in the coming decades the proportion of elderly people in Poland will be less than in many countries of the continent, especially the southern ones (about 21% in 2030 compared to more than 25% in Italy or Greece) – however, the dynamics of aging Polish societies will exceed Czech Republic or Hungary European average.
This is the effect of both the expected birth rate, zero or even negative, and the fact that many millions of citizens of these countries, especially of working age, are left outside their borders.
Information source: PAP MediaRoom
This means that half of the population of the 27 European Union countries was over 43.7 years old and the other half younger. Among the 27 member states of the European Union, the average age ranged from 37.7 years in Ireland and Cyprus to 46.7 years in Italy, confirming the registered demographics in each of these member states.
The average age recorded in the EFTA and Candidate Countries in 2019 was below the European Union level of 27, with the exception of Liechtenstein (44.2 years) and Serbia (43.7 years, as in the EU-27).
Demographic dependency ratios can be used to measure the level of support that a working-age population provides to the youth or the elderly. This percentage is expressed in the relative size of the younger or older population in relation to the working-age population.
As of January 1, 2019, the European Union’s 27 elderly population dependency ratio is 31.4%. This means that for every person 65 years of age or older, there were more than three people of working age. The demographic dependence of older persons in the 27 EU member states was at a low of 20.7%. In Luxembourg, it is 21.6%. In Ireland, which means that on average, for every person 65 years of age or over, there are nearly five people of working age, while the highest levels were 35.7% in Italy, 35.1% in Finland and 34.6%. In Greece, which means that on average, there were fewer than three people of working age for every person aged 65 or over.
In 2019-2100, the percentage of the working-age population is set to decrease and the elderly are likely to make up the increasing share of the total population: By 2100, the proportion of people aged 65 and over will increase to 31.3%. Of the total population of the 27 European Union countries, compared to 20.2%. In 2019
As a result of the demographic shift between age groups, the elderly dependency ratio in EU 27 is expected to double from 31.4%. In 2019 to 57.1% by 2100 and the total dependency ratio will increase from 54.9%. In 2019, to 82.6 percent by 2100. Life expectancy is expected to increase by 5.1 years, from 43.7 in 2019 to 48.8 in 2100.
Epson report, Eurostat