The impact of the epidemic on the life expectancy of Gdynia residents

In 2015-2017, the death rate was 10.3 per 1,000 Poles living in Poland (whatever that means). And in 2018-2019 it was 10.5. It was recently reported that the death rate for 2020 was 12 per thousand. Nevertheless, this is an average indicator for the four quarters of 2020. The last quarter was dramatic, so – assuming that the previous index, i.e. 10.5, was preserved in the first three quarters – the fourth quarter of 2020 index can be calculated as 16.5, That is, an increase of 57%.

From January 2015 to September 2020 (according to data from three Gdynia cemeteries – the website, 5 people (4.97 to be exact) died every day. Unfortunately, in the last quarter of 2020 there was a sudden jump to 7.4 people per day, and in January 2021 to 7.5, an increase of about 50%, which corresponds to the increase in the previous indicator; On this occasion, one can express the opinion that the mean Gdynia in question is slightly below the Polish average …

Given the average life expectancy, one can come to a surprising conclusion – the life expectancy in the months discussed and affected by the epidemic … for a stable period (with about 5 deaths per day) from the whole of 2015 to the entire third quarter of 2020 , It was 75.1 years, but in the fourth quarter of 2020 it suddenly rose to 78.1 years and in January 2021 it decreased slightly to 77.5 years. The sudden increase in deaths can be explained by the sudden increase in deaths observed in the elderly group (over 60 years of age), which must be reflected in the calculations of the average discussed (the outcome), because the sum of the years lived from leaving citizens increased more Sharpness (in the numerator) of their number (in the denominator). This phenomenon can be called paradox (people die more often, and statistics show that they increase).

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If the ratio is the result of dividing wj to the daily number of deaths, then from 2015 to September 2020 the average was 15.4, while in the fourth quarter of 2020 and January 2021 it was about 10, but this indicator applies only to deceased residents of Gdynia, not all of them (only From 3 tombs).

Perhaps the most comprehensive indicator (although still related to Gdynia natives with data collected from this site) is the ratio of cj to coefficient discussed at the beginning of the article. For the period from 2015 to September 2020, the average was 7.3, but already in the fourth quarter of 2020 and January 2021 it decreased to only 4.7.

How will the indicators discussed change in the coming months?